Active Listing Inventory:
Active listings dropped by 111 homes in the past two weeks, and is now at 4,758—This is the lowest since June and 6% below the July 31 peak; with rates under 6.5%, demand is expected to further erode supply through the Autumn and Holiday Markets.
Compared to last year, inventory is 22% higher (3,695 in 2024 vs. 4,758 today), though still well below the pre-COVID 3-year average of 6,520 homes.
While more sellers are listing in 2025 than in the past two years, August saw 2,363 new listings, 5% fewer than last year, this marks the first annual decline since November 2023.
Demand and Market Pace:
Demand rose from 1,559 to 1,591 pending homes in the past two weeks (+2%), as mortgage rates settled near 6.25%—which is well below January’s 7.26% peak—this helped boost affordability and buyer activity.
Compared to last year, demand is up 11% (1,591 vs. 1,413), but still 49% below the pre-COVID 3-year average of 2,363 pending sales.
With a weaker job market pressuring the Fed to act, upcoming decisions on the Federal Funds rate and the release of the PCE inflation index will play a major role in shaping mortgage rate trends for the last quarter of 2025 and beyond.
Luxury End
Luxury inventory over $2.5M dipped 3% to 1,156 homes, while demand jumped 12% to 161 pending sales, cutting the overall Expected Market Time from 248 to 215 days.
By price tier, $2.5M–$4M homes improved to 163 days, $4M–$6M homes held steady at 224 days, and $6M+ homes saw a major drop to 447 days, this signals stronger momentum in the high-end market.
Seller Behavior:
Many homeowners remain “hunkered down” with locked-in low mortgage rates, keeping new listings still well below historical norms.
August marked the first annual decline in new listings since November 2023, with 2,363 homes hitting the market—5% fewer than last year—showing sellers are still cautious.
San Clemente Market Snapshot (September 2025)
Median Days on Market: Around 28 days, showing a recent increase from earlier lows.
Closed Sales: Trending down from a spring peak of ~65 homes, now closer to 50 sales/month.
Active Listings: Inventory peaked mid-year at ~205 homes and is now slightly declining to 190 homes on the market.
Percent of List Price Received: Averaging ~96–97%, showing buyers have some negotiation room compared to last year’s highs.
Takeaway: San Clemente’s market is cooling slightly but still relatively flat with a balanced market that slightly favors sellers. Inventory is easing down, and sellers are receiving just under 97% of list price, signaling more balance between buyers and sellers.
Dana Point Market Snapshot (September 2025)
Median Days on Market: Hovering around 25 days, fairly steady with slight recent decrease
Closed Sales: Recently spiked near 100 homes sold, though reduced back to 80 in the last month.
Active Listings: Inventory peaked above 400 homes mid-year, now trending down toward 360 homes.
Percent of List Price Received: Currently at ~97%, slightly softer than earlier in the year.
Takeaway: Dana Point continues to see steadier sales volume with inventory still higher than last year’s lows. Homes are staying on the market about a month, and sellers are averaging around 97% of asking price — showing a softer, but still active, market.
| Metric | San Clemente | Dana Point |
|---|---|---|
| Median Days on Market | 27 days — up ~18% MoM | 32 days — up ~14% MoM |
| Closed Sales | 45 homes — down ~8% MoM | 55 homes — up ~10% MoM |
| Active Listings | ~290 — down ~9% MoM | ~340 — down ~12% MoM |
| Median % of List Price Received | 97% — down ~2% MoM | 96% — down ~1.5% MoM |
Takeaway: Both San Clemente & Dana Point are cooling. Homes are taking longer to sell, inventory is shrinking, and sellers are getting closer to 96–97% of list price. Buyers now have more room to negotiate as we head into fall.
